去年买房的时候遇到过一个九十年土地使用权的CONDO (公寓) ，连房产代理都搞不清楚，从价值上来讲，和永久产权相比会有什么不同。同样的，中国的七十年土地使用权也让有些人感觉怪怪的。最近上课又玩上了DCF，突然想到这个问题，便很小儿科的在Excel里拉了几下。任何知道十年后的一百块小于今天的一百块的人都应该能看懂下面的分析。

先列一下假设：

*假设您在上海买的房子是用来“买房收租” 的，即使不是， 你也可以想象成自己住而省下的房租。

*假设房租每年上涨3%，

*机会成本5% (除去少数股神，七十年个人投资预计百分之五应该还算合理)

*今年房租净收入5万元 (房租减去管理杂费，房产税，等等)

* 和谐社会

如果你拥有永久产权, 您就可以永永远远的收租收下去，收下去，收下去：

那么房价 = 5万 / 5% = 100万，哇! 那么便宜! 当然这是错的，这里没有考虑涨房租。

假设房租每年上涨3% -略低于机会成本5%，貌似是合理的。

5万 / (5%-3%) = 250万，哇! 有点儿贵! 在上海, 二百五的房子，月租五到六千，貌似合理吧？

在第七十年底，同样的公式得出这个房子价值当时的近两千万。不过不要太兴奋，七十年后的两千万大概只值现在的65万。为什么二百五的房子变成65万了? 让我们姑且假设你的房子经过七十年岁月的洗礼，已是破旧不堪，快倒了，又还没倒。明眼人要说，那你还收那么贵的房租？因为我们假设的房租涨幅低于机会成本，其实到那年的房租只相当与现在的1万3千元了。

如果你拥有的不是永久产权，而是七十年使用权， 有三种可能：

1. 完全免费，无限延长使用权，继续住。

和谐社会, 真他妈没的说，两种房产价值是一样的。那我还忙活什么？

2. 完全滚蛋，代表人民收回您的使用权，另作它用 。

挪房子! 如果让你挪房子，而你又没有韩寒说的"UP"中的那么多氢气球的话，那很麻烦。

现在知道整栋房子搬走是可行的，用巨型卡车整个儿开走。当然，那是针对别墅或小房子。如果您住的是大厦，我看还是别忙活了。就算能搬，几百户邻居也很难决定搬到哪儿去。

所以，您损失当时的两千万房屋价值，约合现在的65万元。比对现在的房价，大约百分之26%，不是一个小数目。

3. 原地不动，交地租给人民。

这是最可能发生的情况。因为对业主来说也是最经济的，就算你能把房子放上卡车开走，可是四海之内，莫非王土，与其到别处另租地，不如就地交租。不过，如果您住的恰好是七十年后的豪华地段，那我真为您 (或您的继承人) 捏一把汗。

用两段Growing Annuity(这个中文叫什么):

七十年后，地租为当时房租的10%：由于没有土地产权，您大约损失现在房价的 2.6%

七十年后，地租为当时房租的25%：由于没有土地产权，您大约损失现在房价的 6.5%

七十年后，地租为当时房租的50%：由于没有土地产权，您大约损失现在房价的 19.5%

七十年后，地租为当时房租的100%：由于没有土地产权，您大约损失现在房价的 26%

最后一种其实就是#2，让你走人。地租一旦高过房租，恭喜，事隔近百年，又产生了新一代的拆迁户。记得问拆迁办的同志要两千万哦! 不过从现状来看，如果您住市中心，也许根本不用七十年，您就可以拿拆迁费了。

注：这里没有考虑房子的改造及翻新，但这将使两种权益的价值拉开更大的差距。想象你搬进一个六十九年的房子，大肆翻新扩建一番 (美国人倒是经常干这事儿) ，待明年拱手献给人民。

再注：天哪，如果买的是一个露天车位，岂不是真的灰飞烟灭了？

前两年经常在新闻里听到(打击)车匪路霸这个词，后来推广到任何霸占一方资源的都可以称为霸。于是有肉霸，票霸，水霸，电霸，高考还有考霸，家里洗澡时的取暖器都自称浴霸! 但这些朋友怎么都比不上这位呼之欲出的滤霸(绿坝)  - 我强烈怀疑前一个才是本名，后面的艺名改得挺不错的。

下面是一些号称安装测试过滤霸的网友的报告，有一定的可信度，具体的不说了，基本上总结为：

1. 安装容易卸妆难
2. 装完电脑变半瘫
3. 只要露肉全都删 (什么动物的肉，哪儿的肉，本滤霸不管)
4. 露肉太多把IE关 (用GOOGLE CHROME的更惨，整个儿退出)

从软件开发的角度来说，前三条还讲的过去，所有的预装软件其实都不方便拆，而且影响电脑速度，这都算了。现在第一版把猴子认成裸体美女我也认了，有些人毛发浓密一点嘛，再说盯着(通常)裸体的野生动物看，也不是很健康。技术上的问题以后可以通过更新软件来改进过滤条件，比如说露肉(色) 低于50%的就放行，或者做成可以由家长控制调节的(当然是从0%-50%)。0%就只能看床单，10%可能可以看到一些阿拉伯美女，不过黄色网站也可以有对策，我在这里就不方便说了，聪明人意会就是了。第四点，“露肉太多把IE关”。这样的霸王条约让我想起了中学的教导主任，好不容易逃离了他的魔掌，现在可好，把他老人家请家里来了!

这件事让一些人出离愤怒，但我不知为什么觉得它让人有一种群众运动似的心潮澎湃。可以预见网上会沸沸扬扬的讨论上几个月，然后懂点电脑的都拆了，只可怜了那些不懂的，和那些虽然自己懂，要拆，但父母不懂且不许拆的花季们。当联想到希望小学的学生们生平第一次打开那传说中缤纷的网络世界，但只看到一些花花草草的时候，我感到一点难过。

这类事情我本来是从不会有心情一个字一个字得用南极星打出来的，因为又不是装在我的电脑上。有点触我神经的是他的别名，“花季护航”! 离开中国的时候刚刚开始流行用EMAIL，没有切身感受到网络自由被禁锢的痛苦，但我切身感受过意识被禁锢的无奈，当时好像并不抗拒，现在却愈感遗憾。我们的花季唯不缺主任，但恨鲜见良师，经常觉得自己的花季可以过得更美好一些，更轻松一点，但这不由我。 

我现在基本相信这个是一些不怀好意的个人在各个BBS和八卦论坛上散布的谣言了。

上文提到中学里竟还得过文明寝室。众所周知，我国把文明进一步细分为精神文明和物质文明。我们小时候常听到精神文明和物质文明两手抓，这个“抓” 字真的用的莫名其妙，“抓” 什么，怎么“抓” ？ 难免让人联想到自己的精神和财产都让别人抓得死死的，透不过气来。 这些政策落实到寝室工作，就具体得多了 – 精神文明就是晚上不讲话，物质文明就是地上没有“物质”，被子叠成豆腐干。

最后说一个以前的趣事，住读的同学每个星期都会代一些饼干之类的干粮以便夜里充饥，可难免家里让带的不合胃口，有时甚至到食不下咽的地步。著名的就是一种圆形的饼干，很大，很干，又没有任何味道，更没有创意的造型，因为是泰康食品厂出产的，所以在饼干上印着“泰康大牛奶” 的字样。一次昌昌和我都积压了一批大牛奶，周末回家前一定要处理掉，如果是一般的东西，那随便一扔就算了，可是这大牛奶又大又圆又硬的外形使我们不约而同地产生了丢飞碟的欲望。于是，片片大牛奶潇洒的划着弧度飞向了男寝后面的煤堆，个别厉害的更是飞过了学校围墙，落到了居民新村里。令人不可思议的是，经过这么剧烈的撞击，坚挺的大牛奶居然大多数仍能保持完美的大圆形! 我们捧着空空的饼干罐子，四目对视，不由得对大牛奶以及它的生产厂家肃然起敬起来。

开门见山： 我不知道“南北”是什么意思，榜单上的第一美女是俞小姐。

“9.23事件”，要不是老同学可可闻提醒，倒还忘了这个事件还是被冠了名的。其实9.23只是一个普通的星期一，但是，是“一号美女” 和“一号美女” 她爸爸来学校 告状的日子。

上午事件刚刚曝光，一时的焦点还不在我身上。不管我为美女榜贡献了多少力量，我想因为并没有任何书面证据，我最多也是个从犯。谁知道才战战兢兢的吃完午饭，就被揪到办公室。“说! 你有没有说过 — 世界上的女人，从八岁到八十岁都归你 管! ？”

乖乖! 我现在看看都觉得豪放得有点过分了! 由于那天星期六中午放学了， 教室里又没什么人，估计是我们在教室里争论谁COVER的RANGE比较大，我一不小心就冒了这么一句。其实这和拍卖一样，有时你也不想出那么大价钱，被时势和言语一激，便出手买了。我到现在都记不清楚，但应该不至于到连八十岁老太太也不放过的地步。不过我记得当时慌忙申辩，以为减小年龄范围可以适量减刑，便说我只说了从“十八岁到三十岁” (听起来合理多了) ，但结果好象并没有太大的帮助。

当时真有点类似文字狱的情形，每个人在寝室和教室所讲的“语录” 都被美女，好事者，和“同案犯” 一一供出，并汇总整理成累累罪状， 然后班主任依“语录” 的质量和数量予以“严厉教育”。 这样的精选集看起来自然很黄，很暴力，我也理解徐老师受到的惊吓和由此而来的怒气。

小孩子是很容易由于惊吓和奇怪的荣誉感而成为非常可怕的武器，那一两天我甚至都有点感受到那种文化大革命中的那种六亲不认，革命不避亲的气氛了。好在这次严打处理的很快，星期一曝的光，星期三是家长探望日，倒正好成了我们的家长臭骂日。这一事件的其它细节不多说了，其实也不记得了，这时离开学不到一个月，思维同学就终断了住宿生涯，从此一直走读到高三毕业。

要不怎么说人不风流枉少年呢，我和同寝室的昌昌并没有完全吸取教训，以至于走上了一条“不归路” ，并在大约一个月以后受到了我在附中的第一个警告处分。

由于刚刚认识还没有什么共同语言，寝室卧谈会的主题便顺理成章的集中在大家对班上那个女生漂亮之类的事情上了。开始是每个人报出他的TOP3，然后慢慢演变成一张完整的排行榜。

具体的排行早已不记得了，但前两位都是咱老班长强力推荐的(当时还不是班长 ... 我真的很累哎)，谁叫人家有领导力呢。由于和我评的没有什么交集，使我一度开始怀疑起自己的审美观了。不管怎么说，那时的寝室生活是最无忧无虑的，洋溢着笑骂，充满着幻想。在实践运用方面，班长也走在了前列，一直号称占据排行榜首位的女同学在英语小班课上对他频送秋波，我们一度羡慕不已。寝室里只有一个人是极为不爽的，因为渊子是寝室长，要维护纪律。

同学们的“潇洒不羁”慢慢使部分榜单泄漏到女生那边。按常理，上榜的应该窃窃暗爽，可没想到世上也有女生认为得到男生的仰慕是一件极其讨厌和羞耻的事。可不，咱们的头号美女知情后很不爽，回到家不吃饭不睡觉，大哭。然后就是她老爸怒了，班主任徐老师怒了，我们惨了。具体细节请看下回分解。

上回说到我撞狗屎运考近上外附中，心里暗爽。一则是不用参加大型的升学考试，二是上一回提到的在口试笔试间隙见到了不少当时认为的美女，而且她(们) 也顺利的晋级成了同学。

现在总有些遗憾自己过早的开始住校生涯，过早的离开我现在仍然很爱的徐汇区，但当时一个很仰慕的女同学去了美国，再综合一些其它的因素，让我觉得也没什么可留恋的了。记得暑假前有一次类似于 “Admission Day” 的活动，可以Preview以下以后同班的同学。小孩子的移情别恋是很快的，我看见她，而且使劲捕捉时间捕捉角度的看见她。在礼堂里排座位的时候好想能坐的离她近一点，但好像事与愿违，大概要用望远镜才看得见，没有缘分就是这样的。我只记得赵轶，来自澳门路，在我边上不停地剥脚。

注：发现竟然时常有人“百度”上外附中然后看到这里，加上自己也很想写，所以继续，并适当的放宽尺度。

Business school application is a lot like a date game.

First, you need to pick your “targets”, and you need to file an application!  Choices can be based on prestige, fit, academics, career prospective, and alumni network, etc. However, since you only have limited time and energy and each “first date” will cost you a lot, most people choose to date a few of them at a time. Here is a breakdown of your costs to get a first date.

1. $200 to 230 non-negotiable application fee
2. 4 to 6 essays, or love letters, to explain how much love you have for each school
3. 20 to 50 emails to remind your recommenders to stick to the deadlines of each school
4. Countless hours of sitting in front of your laptop and could not write even a single sentence
5. Typing your address, work experience, your parent’s profiles N times. N = the number of schools you apply.
6. Going through your essay x times trying to cut words and sometime letting go entire sentences just to make the word count of your essay from 525 to 495.
7. For some people, $150-200 per hour consulting fee paid to MBA admission consultants. Yes, they are expensive, and they are useful for people who don’t know how to dress up for their dates.
8. Travel expenses, including vacation hours used, for school visits

The total cost: excluding the opportunity costs for your time, which range from $10/hr to $100/hr, one can easily drop anywhere from $1,000 to $8,000 after-tax hard-earned cash for all of your applications.

Now you have all your packages ready to go, even though your recommenders always ignore your reminders and submit their letters exactly one day before the deadline. Congratulations, you have managed to go through this logistic nightmare! When you hit that “submit my application” button, your first date is over. All you can do now is to wait for her email.

Yes, your date doesn’t even bother talking to you before fully evaluating your profile. This is fair, because we are not exactly being loyal ourselves. Most of us cast a wide net and apply to many schools. We told every one of them that we love her the most. I really respect the small group of people who only date one school, but I dare not to, because I want to get married next year.

After more than one month after your application, if you are among the lucky ones, you will receive an invitation for a second date. This time, your date will finally talk to you!  Since she will see you in person this time, make sure you get yourself a designer suit and a nice haircut preferably not from “Super-Cut”. Most importantly, just like any relationship, you need to bring your passion. To me, passion at interviews comes from self-persuasion. Even if you are in love with Ms. A and not so much for Ms. B, you got to find a way to show your passion when Ms. B approaches.  

I encountered such problem myself. My second date with Ms. T was a disaster, because I wasn’t well prepared and pretty much faked my passion. Then there comes the unexpected letter from Ms. H, and I had about a month to really convince myself and find my passion for her. It was not too hard for me, because Ms. H has been my dream girl for a long time, and best of all, we live in the same city!  I read every line of every article about her, and studied previous dating experiences posted by other hopefuls. Just when I was fully immersed in my love for Ms. H, Ms. W sent me a letter asking me to go on a second date with her as well, and she also gave me a DEADLINE to schedule it! I had to set it just 3 days after my date with Ms. H. This was a problem. How could I turn 180 degrees and find the passion for a completely different lady within just 3 days? Right after my interview with H on Monday, I cleared everything about Ms. H out of my mind and watched a movie with my wife (oops!). For the rest of the three days, I thought about Ms. W and Ms. W only. In the end, I think I did a pretty good job at my second date with Ms. W.

Now I am so relieved that I watched a couple episodes of "Kitchen Nightmare". I really think I love them both and will marry either one of them if they like me back. Hey, wait a minute, I just heard rumor that Ms. S has started sending out her invitations to the guys. God, she is so lazy and crazy! But you know what, she is cute too. If she calls me tomorrow, I will have no choice but go through that same process once more. After all, I am still single!

Having wanted to write about this for a long time, and I finally managed to squeeze some time out of my daunting essay writing mode for business schools and upcoming crazy work weeks assured by the boss. I am trying to limit the word count to a business school application standard, 500 words.

As a fan of Japanese horror movies with subscription to Blockbuster’s unlimited online rental service, I just could not miss a Japanese movie with the title “After Life”. When I got the DVD, it was obvious that I made the mistake of not reading the synopsis carefully enough.

People, dead people but in normal forms, arrive at an old school-like facility in batches, where they are given one week to choose one memory and one memory only to take into the afterlife. Once one has chosen a memory, it will be recreated by filming it using actors and all the tricks and illusions of cinema. Then comes the shocking part – this piece of film will replace all of one’s memory in the world and will be played over and over again in eternity. Most people spend most of the week remembering, thinking, and choosing which piece of memory they are going to pick.

A 70-year-old lady picks a time when she was 7-year-old and dancing in her favorite red dress in front of her older brother and his friends. A middle aged business man picks the feeling of an early summer breeze from the school bus window he was riding when he was 16. One picks the scene in which he flied a glider through the clouds. To my surprise, very few people choose memories with their lovers and family. At the end of the week, once the film is made, each person will sit in an old cinema and watch the piece of memory that he has helped to recreate. When the film ends, he disappears. I guess that means he has left for his afterlife.

(The movie paces gracefully and elegantly, a feature of a lot of Japanese films.)

What will you choose to film and hold on to eternally? It is a scary question, but it is a beautiful one and really touches your soul. Although I do not believe this kind of afterlife, I could not stop thinking about it long after the movie ended. To some of the people, it was a great deal because they get to “live” with their most cherished moments forever. But to most people, who want or care about too many things in the world, it is a hard decision to make. It is hard to give up what we already have, and it is even harder to choose our moments.

Whenever I think of this question, I get scared because it feels like I am wasting my previous life every day without any “real” contribution to my final decision. Why am I doing what I am doing now? Should I sit down and think about my past life, or should I start to create some new memories? What do I want? Who do I love? If we can slow down a bit and think about these questions once in a while, we will feel more grateful about life even if we might never find a satisfactory answer.

For the pick of the moment, I am thinking about memories with my lovely wife. Though not exactly sure which one to choose, but I want you to be in my life, before and after.